U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Heddiw
Tomorrow
Day Three

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Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1225 am CDT Thu Apr 26 2018 


Valid 261200z - 271200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the southeast... 


... 
Isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts are 
expected across parts of the southeast on Thursday afternoon and 
evening. 


..eastern Alabama/Georgia/South Carolina/central North Carolina... 
An upper-level trough will move across the southeast today as a 55 
to 65 kt mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. At the 
surface, a low will move from the central Gulf Coast states into 
Georgia as a cold front advances eastward across the region. A 
corridor of weak low-level moisture with surface dewpoints mostly in 
the lower to mid 50s f will be in place ahead of the front by 
afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence near 
the surface low should result in convective initiation across 
central and northern Alabama around midday. Convective coverage is 
expected to increase with thunderstorms moving across central and 
northern Georgia and into South Carolina this afternoon. Storms 
should eventually reach central North Carolina this evening. Rap 
forecast soundings at 00z from Atlanta, Georgia to Columbia, SC show 
surface dewpoints in the mid 50s f, MLCAPE around 500 j/kg and 0-6 
km shear of 35 to 45 kt. This may be enough for a few marginally 
severe multicells. The primary threats should be for hail and strong 
wind gusts. 


.Broyles/Gleason.. 04/26/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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Mesoscale discussion 0289 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0324 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018 


Areas affected...parts of south Texas 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 252024z - 252230z 


Probability of watch issuance...20 percent 


Summary...a severe storm or two -- with potential to produce hail 
and/or locally damaging winds. Ww is not anticipated at this time 
due to anticipated limited coverage of risk. 


Discussion...latest radar loop shows a cluster of thunderstorms near 
and west of the Sat area, along a cold front moving steadily 
southward across south Texas. Other, stronger cells are ongoing 
well west of the Rio Grande over northeast Mexico -- where much 
greater instability is observed. 


With that said, the eastern extension of the axis of stronger 
instability extends just across the river into Laredo/Cotulla area, 
south of the ongoing storms. As the front advances southward into 
this area, a couple of more vigorous storms may develop. While 
shear remains somewhat modest across the area -- only marginally 
supportive of mid-level rotation, some risk for hail and or damaging 
winds may evolve locally late this afternoon and early evening. 


.Goss/Hart.. 04/25/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...crp...ewx... 


Latitude...Lon 28340028 28790019 29679882 29549815 29049810 27539903 
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