Northeast Weather Blog

Last Updated: 07:50 PM GMT ar Tachwedd 06, 2009 — Last Comment: 05:56 PM GMT ar Tachwedd 07, 2009

	Quiet and seasonable this week

Posted by: sullivanweather, 07:50 PM GMT ar Tachwedd 06, 2009

strong>Current watches, warnings and advisories.

Fig.2 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

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Forecast Discussion

Synopsis - Issued 11/06/09 @2:50pm

High pressure will crest over the Northeast tonight delivering the coldest night of the season thus far for several locales. As the high moves offshore to begin the weekend a moderating trend will ensue that should bring temperatures back above normal readings by Sunday and Monday. A weak trough will slide by on Tuesday with an increase in clouds and sporadic showers. Temperatures will drop back to average, or slightly below behind the front for Wednesday before building heights and moderating temperatures return for Thursday and Friday. In all, a rather uneventful week for the Northeast.

Near-term - Issued 11/06/09 @2:50pm

A rather winter-like day this afternoon across the interior of the Northeast from central New York/northeast Pennsylvania to Maine as low clouds, flurries and blustery conditions accompany temperatures generally in the 30’s. Down along the coastal plain the cloud deck is broken but it is still blustery and chilly, with temperatures in the 40’s. Meanwhile, over the western third of the region, high pressure has managed to produce enough sinking motion in the atmosphere to disperse the cloud deck yielding mostly sunny skies. However, temperatures are still rather chilly, despite the sunshine, mostly in the 40’s although a few locales across the northern mountains of Pennsylvania remain in the mid to upper 30’s.

Short-term - Issued - 11/06/09 @2:50pm

As high pressure slowly pulls east during the evening hours the cloud cover over the Northeast will continue to break up and clear skies will eventually dominate the landscape, northern New England aside. With the cold, dry airmass in place, and clear skies and calm winds thanks to high pressure, ideal radiational cooling conditions will be present across a good chunk of the region tonight. Temperatures will fall rather quickly once the sun goes down this evening and continue to drop through the night. Lows should easily reach the low to mid 20’s across much of the interior with teens across the higher terrain of the North Country. Even down along the coastal plain temperatures should drop below freezing. In fact, the only locales that should manage to remain above freezing are the urban centers of Boston, New York and Philadelphia, Cape May and the immediate coastal locales along the Jersey Shore.

High pressure moves offshore the Outer Banks of North Carolina during the morning hours, with a return flow of warming southwesterly winds moving over the Northeast during the day on Saturday. On the heels of a 35-40kt low-level jet, 850mb temps should rise 6-10°C in the 24 hours from this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon. So despite the chilly start to the day, temperatures will rebound nicely during the morning hours and should approach normal readings by the afternoon (mid 40’s to low 50’s interior/mid/upper 50’s coastal plain). Sunshine will be filtered by an increase in high cloudiness, especially so during the afternoon as a weak trough approaches from the west.

The aforementioned weak trough will glide through the Northeast Saturday night with just an increase in clouds for most. A few sprinkles may fall across the North Country after midnight. Temperatures across the region will be close to freezing so some pockets of spotty freezing drizzle may cause some problems but this activity should be isolated at best. Further south, the precipitation chances are all but nil and the increase in cloud cover will make for a much milder night. Temperatures should range from the mid to upper 30’s across the interior to the low to mid 40’s down along the coastal plain.

Mid-term - Issued - 11/06/09 @2:50pm

After the passage of Saturday night’s trough the Northeast will see a roughly 48 hour window of rather pleasant weather. Skies will be mostly clear with a few passing high clouds Sunday and Monday, including the overnight hours. Temperatures will be rather mild, running 5-12 degrees above normal for early November. This translates into highs in the upper 50’s to low 60’s down along the coastal plain with mid to upper 50’s across the interior. For overnight lows the coastal plain will bottom out in the mid to upper 40’s with upper 30’s to low 40’s across the interior. A backdoor front will drop south on Tuesday, ending the streak of mild weather and returning temperatures back near to slightly below normal. Precipitation chances along the front will be low and mainly confined to the northern interior.

Long-term - Issued - 11/06/09 @2:50pm

It will remain quiet in the long term as high pressure crosses the region on Wednesday, then moves offshore for Thursday. Another front approaches from the west for Friday but once again, lacking moisture. Temperatures will average around normal through the period, with the warmest day on Thursday, running about 5 degrees above normal bookended by slightly below normal temperatures for Wednesday and Friday.

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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

Fig.4 - Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.

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Local SST's

Fig.5 - Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.

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